Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract. Storm-surge-induced coastal inundation constitutes a substantial threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of Bengal delta. Some deadliest cyclones in history made landfall delta region claiming more than half million over last five decades. Complex hydrodynamics observational constraints have hindered understanding risk storm surge flooding this low-lying (less 5 m above mean sea level), densely populated (> 150 million) mega-delta. Here, we generated analysed database derived from large ensemble 3600 statistically physically consistent synthetic events high-resolution modelling system. The system is developed based on custom high-accuracy regional bathymetry enabling us estimate surges with high confidence. From dataset, performed robust probabilistic extremes. Our shows that there diverse range water level extremes coast estuaries delta, well-defined patterns. We confirm inland at given return period firmly controlled by presence embankments their height. also conclude about 10 % population living under exposure 50-year current climate scenarios. In face ongoing change, which likely worsen future hazard, expect our flood maps provide relevant information for infrastructure engineering, zoning, resource allocation, research planning.
منابع مشابه
Rising hazard of storm-surge flooding.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is one for the history books. It has blown a number of records out of the water. Harvey dumped more rain on the United States than any previous hurricane. Irma maintained the highest category 5 longer than any storm anywhere in the world. September 2017 has accumulated themost cyclone energy of any month on record in the Atlantic. Last, but not least, if early...
متن کاملDownscaling Effects on Modelling Waves, Tides and Storm Surge
This paper presents the results of downscaling effects when modelling waves, tides and storm surge using a nested modelling system. In this study, the coupled POLCOMS/ProWAM models are used, with 3 nested computational domains, the largest of which covers part of north-eastern Atlantic Ocean with a coarse resolution grid and the smallest covers the surrounding waters of south-west Cornish coast...
متن کاملModelling the Tracy storm surge – implications for storm structure and intensity estimation
The results of hydrodynamic storm surge modelling are used to inform and construct a detailed quantitative description of the possible changing structure and intensity of severe tropical cyclone Tracy as it proceeded across Beagle Gulf to landfall at the City of Darwin in 1974. The measured storm surge is used as an independent wind calibration proxy to augment the measured eyewall winds and pr...
متن کاملA multisensor approach to dust storm monitoring over the Nile Delta
This work analyzes several remote sensing instrument capabilities in monitoring dust storms. Multisensor data analysis is carried out to study the behavior of dust particles at different wavelengths. A technique based on a combination of optical and microwave sensing of dust storms, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Mic...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1561-8633', '1684-9981']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022